Pokémon Grading: Which Cards Actually Make Money? (AKA: When a Plastic Coffin Is Worth It)

Let’s talk about the thing that makes perfectly reasonable adults mail tiny pieces of cardboard across the country and then refresh a tracking page like it’s a life support monitor.

Pokémon grading can absolutely make you money. A PSA 10 can sell for multiple times what the same card sells for raw. But grading can also be a fast, expensive way to turn a perfectly good card into… a perfectly good card inside a slab you overpaid for. (Ask me how I know. Actually don’t. I’ll get dramatic.)

The difference between “nice flip” and “why did I do this to myself” usually comes down to two things:

1. Is this card the kind of card that gets a meaningful premium when graded?
2. Do you have a realistic shot at the grade you need for profit?

So let’s make this simple, practical, and mildly entertaining.

First: a few grading terms (so you don’t feel like you’re reading ancient scrolls)

You don’t need to memorize a dictionary, but these pop up everywhere:

• Raw: not graded, not slabbed, just… free range cardboard.
• Graded / slabbed: authenticated + sealed in a plastic case with a number grade.
• PSA 10 / PSA 9: the famous “Gem Mint” (10) vs “Mint” (9). One point. Huge mood swing for your wallet.
• Declared value: the value you tell the grading company for insurance/pricing tiers. (Be honest. Don’t get cute.)
• Pop report (population): how many copies exist at each grade in that grading company’s database. This matters more than your feelings.
• Centering (55/45, 60/40): how even the borders are. Off center cards are the heartbreak of modern grading.
• Holofoil: the shiny part that loves showing scratches under light like it’s trying to snitch on you.

That’s plenty. You’re now fluent enough to not get lost.

Why graded cards sell faster (and why buyers suddenly trust you)

A slab does a few things that raw cards just… don’t.

• Condition isn’t a debate anymore. Buyers aren’t squinting at your photos like they’re enhancing CCTV footage.
• Authentication calms everyone down. Especially on vintage where counterfeits are a whole thing.
• Protection is real. Cards can get messed up in shipping and storage. A slab is basically a tiny bodyguard.

But the real reason people grade isn’t “protection.” It’s the premium.

So let’s talk about the premium because that’s where people get burned.

The uncomfortable truth: grading is a PSA 10 business (especially with modern)

Here’s the vibe:

• Modern (2020s): PSA 10 premiums are often like 2-5x raw… but a lot of modern cards grade well. Roughly 70% of modern submissions hit PSA 10, so “gem mint” isn’t as rare as it feels when you pull it.
• Vintage (1990s-early 2000s): PSA 10s can be 5-10x raw (or more) because true gem mint vintage is genuinely scarce. Only about 14% of 1990s cards hit PSA 10.

A classic example people love because it’s absurd: a 1st Edition Base Set Charizard might be around $1,900 raw, and a PSA 10 has sold around $16,000. That’s the dream scenario and it’s rare because, again, gem mint vintage is unicorn territory.

Why this matters:

If you’re grading modern hoping to “make money,” you’re basically betting on a 10. If you hit a 9, your profit can evaporate faster than a full art card in a daycare.

Population counts: the silent profit killer nobody wants to check

If you take nothing else from this post, take this:

If there are already tens of thousands of PSA 10s of your card, you are not selling “rare.” You’re selling “available.”

PSA graded over 1 million TCG cards in June 2025 alone, and Pokémon is now roughly 43% of their total volume (up from 17% in 2018). Translation: a lot of people are sending a lot of the same cards.

Some modern sets are already basically a grading traffic jam:

• Pokémon 151: 566,000+ cards graded
• Terrasal Festival: 454,000+ cards graded

And here’s the part people don’t want to hear: a flooded pop report can crush the premium, even if the card is cool, even if you love it, even if you pulled it while angels sang.

My personal rule of thumb? If you’re grading for profit, I get way more interested when the card has under ~2,000 PSA 10s (not a perfect rule, but a solid “pause and research” line). If it’s got 50,000+ PSA 10s, you’d better have a very specific reason you’re grading it.

PSA 10 vs PSA 9: the one point cliff

This is where dreams go to get lightly bonked.

For a lot of modern chase cards:

• PSA 10: you can do great.
• PSA 9: you might break even… or lose money after fees… while holding a perfectly nice slab that you now resent.

Vintage is usually more forgiving because even a lower grade can still carry a solid premium (depending on the card). I’ve seen vintage where you can still be positive down to a PSA 6-ish because raw is pricey and demand is steady. Modern? Modern will humble you.

So how do you avoid getting humbled?

You use a boring checklist. (And yes, I know “boring checklist” doesn’t sparkle like a Charizard holo, but it works.)

The “Should I grade this?” checklist (the one I wish someone handed me earlier)

Grade it if…

• It’s vintage and in genuinely strong condition (and the pop report isn’t a giant wall of 10s).
• It’s a modern chase card (alt art, promo, short print) with real demand and not just hype of the week energy.
• The card is at least ~$75 raw and you can realistically hit PSA 9-10.
• You’ve inspected it and you’re not seeing centering issues or surface problems (more on that in a second).

Skip it if…

• It’s under ~$50 raw (unless you’ve got cheap bulk pricing lined up).
• It’s modern bulk / common pulls / “this is technically shiny but nobody’s hunting it.”
• You’re staring at a crease, dent, water damage, or obvious whitening. (That’s not “maybe.” That’s “no.”)
• The pop report shows a flood and prices are already sliding.
• You need the money fast. Grading is not “fast.” Grading is “eventually.”

The loophole: bulk submissions

If you’ve got a local card shop that does group submissions, that can drop your per card cost to something like $15-$18 (varies, always check current pricing). Bulk is the only way I’d even consider grading cards in that $50-$75 range and only if I’m very confident they’ll 10.

Because the fees matter. A lot.

Quick inspection: how to look at your card like a suspicious raccoon

Before you mail anything, spend five minutes inspecting it with card grading basics. Future You will be so grateful.

What you need

• A 10x loupe (they’re like $10)
• A bright LED light
• Something for centering (a centering tool is nice, but honestly you can eyeball obvious disasters)

What I check first (in this order)

1) Centering

Modern grading is brutal about centering. PSA 10 wants roughly 55/45 or better. If it’s 60/40 or worse, you’re likely capped around PSA 9 (sometimes 8) even if everything else is clean.

2) Corners and edges

Under magnification, corners tell the truth. That “pack fresh” card might still have tiny corner softness or edge whitening you didn’t notice at arm’s length.

3) Surface (especially holo)

Tilt it under direct light. Look for hairline scratches. Holo scratches are like glitter once you see them, you can never unsee them.

Red flags that usually cap you at PSA 8 or lower

• Any crease (even a faint one)
• Stains or ink marks
• Noticeable edge whitening
• Major print lines/defects you can’t ignore

If your card has one of these, save your grading money. Buy yourself dinner. Let the card live raw in peace.

The part nobody budgets for: the true cost of grading

The grading fee is not the whole story. You’ve also got:

• Shipping to them
• Return shipping (often $15-$30+)
• Insurance (tied to declared value)
• The card being tied up for 30-90 days (sometimes longer, depending on service level and backlog)

All-in, a lot of submissions land somewhere around $25-$80 per card, depending on how you submit and what tier you pick.

And then because life is a comedy if you’re grading to sell, you also have selling fees (eBay, PayPal, marketplace fees, shipping supplies). So yeah: profit margins can get eaten alive if you’re not careful.

PSA vs CGC vs BGS (aka: which slab do you want living in your house?)

I’m not married to any of these companies, so here’s my practical take:

• PSA: Usually the strongest resale and easiest liquidity. If you’re grading to sell, PSA is often the default because buyers trust it and pay for it.
• CGC: Often cheaper/faster for bulk modern (depends on current pricing). Resale can be a bit lower than PSA (think ~10-15% less in a lot of cases), but costs can also be lower so sometimes the math still works.
• BGS: The subgrades can be nice for high end cards, and the mythical Black Label is a whole chase in itself. But it’s not where I’d start if I’m just trying to learn grading economics.

If your goal is max resale, PSA is usually the safest bet. If your goal is lower cost for modern bulk, CGC can make sense. If your goal is high end flex + subgrades, BGS is its own hobby.

Do the math (yes, you have to): expected profit in one minute

Here’s the rule I use so I don’t “vibes” my way into losing money:

1. Check raw sold prices (eBay sold listings, last ~30 days)
2. Add your all-in grading cost (fees + shipping + insurance)
3. Check sold prices for PSA 10, PSA 9, PSA 8
4. Be honest about the grade you’ll get (this is where we all want to lie to ourselves)

If you want to get fancy, use expected value:

(chance of PSA 10 × PSA 10 price) + (chance of PSA 9 × PSA 9 price) + (chance of PSA 8 × PSA 8 price) − grading cost

Example (numbers similar to what I’ve run before):

A card is $180 raw. You think there’s a 60% chance at PSA 10, 30% at PSA 9, 10% at PSA 8. Grading costs you $50 all-in.

(0.60 × $550) + (0.30 × $225) + (0.10 × $100) − $50 = $357.50 expected value

If your expected value is positive and the downside doesn’t make you nauseous, it’s a decent candidate. If the math only works if you hit a 10 and anything else is pain… you’re gambling. (Which is fine if you know you’re gambling. It’s less fine when you think you’re “investing.”)

My no drama step by step grading plan (steal this)

1. Pull your candidates (don’t grade your whole binder in a frenzy been there).
2. Check pop reports and sold prices before you get emotionally attached.
3. Inspect for centering + surface under good light. Be ruthless.
4. Trash the maybes. If it’s clearly capped at PSA 8 or lower, it’s not a profit play.
5. Run the numbers (raw vs PSA 10/9/8, minus real costs).
6. Pick your top 5 best “math works even if life happens” cards.
7. Choose your submission route (solo vs shop bulk).
8. Track your results so you get better at pre-grading. Your accuracy improves fast if you actually pay attention.

And the biggest mindset shift: profit comes from discipline, not hope. Hope is how you end up with a drawer full of PSA 9 modern cards you’re emotionally avoiding listing.

If you want, tell me what you’re thinking of grading (set/card + rough condition + whether you’re doing bulk or solo), and I’ll help you sanity check the “grade or skip” decision before you start bubble wrapping like a maniac.